While the UMTS (W-CDMA) landscape is changing daily, due to deployment delays and handset issues, the transformation of many cdmaOne networks to CDMA2000 1x is proceeding at a rapid pace. According to research group In-Stat/MDR, the evolution of a cdmaOne network to CDMA 1x is relatively simple since very few new elements are required. The primary hardware addition is the PDSN, which is the CDMA 2000 equivalent to the UMTS GGSN and, existing BTSs, BSCs, and MSCs require modification rather than replacement.
In the In-Stat/MDR report, '3G Infrastructure Deployment Update' the group reveals that no European carriers have committed to EDGE as an upgrade path, although Nokia has announced that it will support any deployment with a GSM/EDGE handset. However, this should not surprise anyone, says In-Stat, since all base stations shipped for more than one year are GSM/GPRS/EDGE capable. However, in the Americas, the situation is different, since no spectrum in the 2 GHz band has been allocated. AT&T Wireless, Cingular, and T-Mobile have announced plans to implement GSM/GPRS/EDGE upgrades within the existing cellular frequencies, using Compact EDGE.
While UMTS has borne the brunt of the recent gloom and doom scenarios, it is actually being deployed, and generating manufacturing revenue at a reasonable rate, it says, and will continue to be deployed at an increasing rate as handsets become available and coverage deadlines advance. In Europe, the driving factor will not necessarily be a 'killer application', but quite probably will be the need for more voice capacity to supplement the strained GSM urban networks. While UMTS is often portrayed as 'expensive,' In-Stat claims that the reality of the situation is that the hardware cost-per-voice channel is less than one-half the cost of GSM.
There will be consolidation in the European UMTS arena. In Germany, for example, with a penetration rate of more than 65%, there is hardly room for six UMTS carriers in addition to the four GSM incumbents, claims the reasearch group. However, in spite of the obvious need to consolidate, deployment will continue at an accelerated rate next year, as the licence holders struggle to activate as large a revenue stream as possible.
For more information see www.instat.com/catalog/cat-cw.htm
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