Just when the wired networking world was unravelling, the industry was bit by the wireless bug. A world with no wires at all is simply an imagination at this point - until utility companies figure out a way to send current and voltage through thin air.
While that may not be possible in the near term, the concept of sending data, video and audio content wirelessly, seems to be the near-term future of networking information and distributed computing.
"The industry is at the brink of a communication and networking revolution," predicts Vamsi Sistla, ABI author of a new study called "Entertainment Networking ICs. We are inches away from a 'wireless nirvana,' with WiFi and UWB wireless technologies taking centre stage."
The key protocols and technologies vying market share are: 802.11-based technologies; wltra-wideband (UWB); and Powerline communications (PLC). Each of these technologies will find their niche market segment in the world of home networking. ABI predicts that the industry will see products based on multiple technologies and protocols, in which all can exist and adapt peacefully.
"Next generation of PC/CE (consumer electronics) convergence devices will start to offer video transferring capabilities, along with audio and image files. Device makers will also start to integrate audio and video decoders within these convergence devices for transferring and storing audio and video content in realtime," according to Sistla.
Wired networking is cost-prohibitive when compared to that of WiFi solutions. The key to wireless' projected success is the rapid drop in silicon prices, in tandem with consumers' reception to the inherent benefits of mobility and flexibility. The already low and decreasing costs of WiFi implementation, gear and deployment are some of the main drivers of WiFi technologies.
Key observations from the study include:
* In 2007, the number of UWB shipments will reach one-fourth of that of WiFi and other wireless chipset shipments, and the number of PLC shipments will reach one-third of that of WiFi and other wireless chipset shipments.
* Worldwide revenues of WiFi and other wireless chipset shipments for A/V applications will reach anywhere between $170 million to $290 million, in the year 2004 and beyond.
* Wireless IC average selling prices are expected to drop rapidly, despite 5 GHz solutions being more expensive than current 2,4 GHz solutions. By the year 2008, ABI expects these video IC ASPs will drop to more than half of their value today.
* UWB chipset shipment growth for video and host device applications will more than double in the years 2005 and 2006, from 1,5 million in the year 2004 to 3,4 million UWB IC shipments in the year 2005, and 7,7 million in 2007. UWB IC ASPs for video and host devices will be in the $30 range in 2004, and will drop to $22 to $25 in 2005, and in year 2006, under the $20 range.
* Powerline A/V chipset revenues will also see dramatic growths in the year 2004 and beyond. Overall, by 2008, Powerline IC revenue will reach over $270m (moderate forecast).
For more information see www.alliedworld.com
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