The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) released its annual forecast for 2003–2006 in November, highlighting a strong growth forecast for 2004. The association is expecting global sales of semiconductors in 2003 to increase by 15,8% to $163 bn, and it projects 2004 revenues to increase by 19,4% to $194,6 bn.
"We are on an accelerated growth path and this is great news", said John Daane, chairman, president and CEO of Altera Corporation, who presented the forecast. "Growth will be broad-based across all markets."
Offering further insight into the state of the industry today: "We are facing an inflection point in our industry where chip development costs are rapidly increasing with each new process node. We believe that this is going to result in some fundamental changes in our industry."
"Now, more than ever, semiconductor manufacturers are forced to closely evaluate the return on investment of each chip produced. New opportunities lie in programmable architectures such as microprocessors, microcontrollers, DSPs and programmable logic, which can be leveraged across many customers and many markets." Daane stressed, "Cost and flexibility will be the keywords going forward."
The SIA expects the total semiconductor market to increase 15,8% to $163,0 bn in 2003, grow 19,4% in 2004, 5,8% in 2005, and grow 6,6% to $219,6 bn in 2006.
Semiconductor market product category breakdown
Discrete components: Includes power transistors and RF solutions that are found in wireless consumer products. This segment is forecast to grow 5,9% to $13,1 bn in 2003. Discretes are then forecast to grow 12,7% in 2004, 9,3% in 2005, and 2,4% to $16,5 bn in 2006.
Optoelectronics: This market includes laser devices, image sensors, and products that are frequently used in communications. In 2003, it is expected to increase 34,7% to $9,1 bn in sales, grow 19,2% in 2004, 5,0% in 2005, and 10,0% to $12,6 bn in 2006.
Analog: The consumer and automotive application-specific types play an important role here. The largest end-use driver for analog includes the upgraded telecommunications networks for Internet and digital telecom technologies. Analog is expected to grow 10,0% to $26,3 bn in 2003, 15,4% in 2004, 11,5% in 2005, and 2,1% to $34,6 bn by 2006.
MOS logic: This includes standard logic, standard cell, field programmable logic devices (FPLD), and a broad variety of application-specific products. In 2003, MOS logic is expected to grow 15,0% to $36,0 bn, increase 15,6% in 2004, 11,4% in 2005 and 2,0% to $47,3 bn in 2006.
MOS micro devices: A broad product category that includes microprocessors, microcontrollers and digital signal processors. In 2003, this sector is forecast to grow 13,9% to $43,4 bn, 18,2% in 2004, 9,0% in 2005, and 5,4% to $58,9 bn in 2006.
Microprocessors: In 2003, this will increase 14,4% to $27,3 bn and then grow 18,3% in 2004, 7,6% in 2005, and 6,0% to $36,8 bn in 2006.
Microcontrollers: The global microcontroller market, driven by consumer and automotive applications, will increase 6,4% to $9,9 bn in 2003, grow 12,1% in 2004, 6,0% in 2005, and 2,0% to $12,1 bn by 2006.
Digital signal processors: DSPs can be found in wired and wireless communications applications, along with consumer, computer and automotive. This will rise 25,9% to $6,1 bn in 2003, 27,1% in 2004, 19,3% in 2005, and 7,6% to $10,0 bn in 2006.
MOS memory: Includes DRAMs, Flash, SRAMs, and EPROMs, continues in its historical volatile patterns. Sales here will be led by the DRAM market, followed by Flash. In 2003, the market is forecast to grow 16,6% to $31,5 bn and 32,3% in 2004. In 2005, this market is expected to incur a cyclical downturn with a decrease of 10,1% to $37,5 bn in sales. By 2006, the loss will be made up with growth resuming to 18,2% to $44,3 bn.
DRAM: No one segment more clearly demonstrates the cyclical nature of the global semiconductor market than DRAMs. While DRAMs were once used almost entirely in computers, they are now found in a broad number of consumer and communication applications. The DRAM market is expected to grow 7,9% to $16,5 bn in 2003 and 35,0% in 2004. In 2005, DRAMs are expected to decrease 20,0% to $17,8 bn, In 2006, this market will rebound 30,0% to $23,1 bn in sales.
Flash: Flash products can be found in communications and digital photography applications. In 2003, it is expected to grow 42,7% to $11,1 billion, grow 36,4% in 2004, and slow its growth to 2,0% in 2005. In 2006, Flash is expected to increase 9,0% to $16,8 bn in sales.
For more information see www.sia-online.org
© Technews Publishing (Pty) Ltd | All Rights Reserved
printer friendly version