IC ASPs to increase in short term
20 August 2008
News
Current spending plans by IC manufacturers worldwide will lower total semiconductor capital expenditures by 18% to $49,7 billion in 2008 from $60,3 billion in 2007, according to new data collected by IC Insights.
Capital expenditure estimates for 2008 have been sliding since the end of 2007
(-9% projected in December and -18% now), but it is unlikely that additional significant reductions will occur through the rest of this year, given the relatively high capacity utilisation rates being seen in most manufacturing segments in the chip industry.
Overall, fab capacity utilisation is forecast to be at an average over 90% in 2008, up from 89% in 2007. In the first quarter of 2008 (1Q08), wafer fab utilisation stood at 91% worldwide. However, 300 mm fab utilisation rates were at an extremely high level of 96% in 1Q08, and it is worth noting that about 85% of all DRAMs and 32/64-bit microprocessors are now fabricated on 300 mm diameter wafers. Considering the strong unit growth rates being seen in memory and logic ICs, there simply is not much room for additional cuts in capital spending budgets at most chipmakers, based on the latest analysis of semiconductor suppliers.
IC Insights expects 2008 capital spending as a percentage of semiconductor sales to be at 17,8%, which would be the lowest ratio over the past 30 years. All this is occurring while IC unit volume shipments are forecast to increase at a healthy 8% rate in 2008.
With a growing number of large IC companies outsourcing more products to foundries and major pure-play wafer foundries aiming to increase profitability by controlling capital spending, IC Insights believes the IC industry continues on a 'collision course' with respect to supply, demand and average selling prices (ASPs), with tight supply conditions and rising IC ASPs expected over the next five years. Capex as a percentage of semiconductor sales went from an average of 27% in the late 1990s to 21% in the early years of this decade. Moreover, the market researcher forecasts that capital spending as a percentage of sales will average only 17 to 18% between 2008 and 2012.
For more information visit www.icinsights.com
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