Connector research group, Bishop and Associates, worked with other industry experts to research and author a connector roadmap that became part of the National Electronic Manufacturing Initiative's 2002 Technology Roadmap Report. Covered in the new report is a 10-year roadmap of selected elements of the electronic connector industry from 2003 to 2013, a review of connector technology trends, and a discussion of the roadmapping process.
The roadmap contains PCB connectors, backplane connectors, processor and memory test sockets power connectors, high-speed connectors, etc.
The Connector Roadmap does not identify any abrupt roadblocks to continued connector usage but says that more gradual shifts will include the continuing process of circuit integration, innovation in electronic packaging, wireless applications, and the decline of Western manufacturing. It does indicate that there will be continuing performance improvements and design innovation, miniaturisation, and the eventual shift to alternative technologies such as fibre optics and MEMS.
As in the past, connectors will continue to evolve, influenced by physical and electrical limits imposed by core connector technologies and application as a separable interface. IC technology (Moore's Law) will continue to drive equipment design. This will increasingly include System-on-Chip and System-in-Package designs. These equipment and packaging trends will heavily influence connector design. Further, connectors will continue to be limited by core technology and electromechanical function. A potential shift to new 'monolithic' PCB designs exists that could affect many components.
Business forces - technology forces, include: 2001-2003 electronics recession which is not yet over in computers and telecom; global competition and supply chain management - ie, increasing pressure on logistics; industry standardisation and multiple sourcing requirements; trend toward outsourcing at all levels of the food chain; shifts in manufacturing to China - from the US, EU, Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, etc; and infrastructure issues that will result from offshore manufacturing.
Specific connector designs will be subject to more rapid change and obsolescence, particularly as product life cycles shrink at the equipment level and business becomes more global. Legacy designs do remain after decades of production, but are no longer 'cash cows' due to significant price erosion.
The pace of change in connectors lags semiconductors. Proprietary connector designs are less popular, creating additional pressure on ASPs. In addition, core technologies are now practised worldwide, life cycles are shorter, and competitive advantage comes more from cost leadership and customer service.
Significant design and business flexibility remains within the connector industry, which has always been very good at electro-mechanical engineering and high volume manufacturing. In addition, OEMs are outsourcing - massively. This means they and their subcontractors are looking for suppliers who can do more, support them globally, and provide error-free product at a competitive price.
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