Spurred by sales of communications solutions for data networking, broadband, wireless, optoelectronics and continued strong demand for the personal computer, the global semiconductor industry will exceed $200 bn for the first time in 2000 and grow to $319 bn in the next three years.
Releasing its annual semiconductor forecast, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) projected that global semiconductor sales would increase 37% this year to $205 bn, and grow 22% next year to $249 bn. Semiconductor product categories that will directly benefit from the new wired and wireless applications include: flash memory, standard cell ASICs, digital signal processors (DSPs), programmable logic devices (PLDs), analog and optoelectronics.
While the Americas will remain the world's largest market, Asia-Pacific is the fastest growing market. A decade ago, the two largest markets, the United States and Japan, made up approximately two-thirds of the global semiconductor market. Today, the two largest markets, the Americas and Asia-Pacific, comprise less than 60% of the worldwide chip market, demonstrating the growing global demand of silicon solutions.
Product categories
* Optoelectronics: The optoelectronics market, which includes laser devices and image sensors, is directly tied to the Internet bandwidth issue. This market will grow 68% this year to $10 bn, 30% next year reaching $13 bn, 19% in 2002 to $15 bn, and in 2003, grow 28% to $19 bn.
* Logic: This year's $34 billion global logic market, which is being driven primarily by communications, will grow 48% this year. This market will grow 26% next year, to $43 bn, 13% in 2002 to $49 billion, 13% to $56 bn in 2003. The logic market - standard cell, gate arrays and PLDs - will grow at a 17% compound annual growth rate during the next three years.
* Microcontrollers: Digital signal processors (DSPs) are one of the fastest growing segments of the global microcontroller market and are expected to grow 48% to $6 bn this year, 33% next year, 22% in 2002, and 28% to $13 bn in 2003. The microcontroller market is expected to grow 35% this year to $19 bn, 25% next year to $24 bn, 13% to $27 bn in 2002 and, in 2003, grow 29%, increasing sales to $34 bn.
* Flash memory: Flash memory devices are key components for wireless handsets, digital imaging, GPS systems and other applications. The flash memory sector will more than double in three years, growing an incredible 130% this year to $10 bn, 44% next year to $15 bn, 21% in 2002 to $18 bn, and increasing 24% to $23 bn in 2003.
* Analog: The $31 bn global analog market, a key component for telecommunications, will grow in-line with the industry during the next three years. The sector will increase 39% this year, 20% in 2001 to $37 bn, 10% in 2002 to $40 bn and increase 15% to $47 bn in 2003.
* Microprocessors: Microprocessors can be most frequently found in personal computers and embedded applications. This year the microprocessor market will grow 11% to $30 bn, 6% in 2001 to $32 bn, 11% in 2002 reaching $35 bn and, in 2003, increase 10% to become a $39 bn market.
* DRAM: The $31 bn global DRAM market will demonstrate its historical volatility during the next three years. The DRAM market will grow 48% this year, 34% next year to $41 bn, 5% in 2002 for a total of $43 bn and 21% to $52 bn in 2003.
* Discretes: Discrete components will grow 31% this year to $18 bn. The worldwide discrete market, which includes diodes, power transistors, rectifiers, thyristors and other discrete categories, will grow to 13% next year to $20 bn, 4% in 2002 to $21 bn and increase 7% in 2003 for a $22 bn discretes market.
The webcast of the SIA Semiconductor Forecast may be viewed at http://webevents.broadcast.com/cahners/sia2001forecast/home.asp. For additional SIA information see www.semichips.org
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