The number of cellular IoT connections that are currently online has reached 1,9 billion and this number is expected to almost triple in the next five years to 5,5 billion. A close to 20% year-on-year growth gives an idea of just how much demand for cellular connectivity hardware is likely to grow.
Within these staggering figures are millions of existing IoT devices that will have to upgrade their connectivity hardware. Around the world, MNOs are shutting down aging 2G and 3G networks to free up resources for more modern, higher-performing 4G and 5G networks. When MNOs sunset legacy networks, devices that depend on those legacy technologies need to be upgraded, or they will become obsolete. This includes millions of telematics trackers, smart meters, and other devices.
Whether you are upgrading existing devices or building new ones, at some point you’ll face a challenging and potentially high-stakes decision: selecting the right connectivity technology for your specific IoT solution. Reach too far into the future, and you’ll risk hitting the market with a solution before the infrastructure it depends on is widely deployed. Fail to follow the latest market trends, and you might see your solution become obsolete before its time.
4G LTE technologies cover an almost continuous performance spectrum, ranging from very low bandwidth technologies with very low power consumption to higher bandwidth ones that consume much more.
At the lower end of the spectrum, LTE Cat 1 is a widely deployed cellular IoT connectivity technology for medium-data-rate and low-latency applications such as video surveillance and point-of-sale terminals. Its global coverage has also made it ideal for mobile applications such as vehicle telematics.
Even lower on the spectrum lie LTE-M and NB-IoT, the two most recent additions to 4G LTE. Designed to offer low-power wide area (LPWA) connectivity, LTE-M and NB-IoT were created with the upcoming 5G standards in mind. Because they build into the technological structure of 5G networks, they are considered both 4G and 5G technologies.
Unlike 4G, 5G is not a continuum but rather, a collection of technologies with three distinct sets of performance levels. Enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) focuses on the high data rates that have been promised. Massive machine-type communication (mMTC) is the continuation of the LPWA communication offered by LTE-M and NB-IoT. Ultra-reliable low latency communication (uRLLC) was created to open up new use cases in robotics and autonomous vehicles.
5G’s initial technological triad left a gaping hole in the performance area currently covered by LTE Cat 1 and LTE Cat 4. The latest release of the 5G standard fixed this omission by introducing 5G Reduced Capability (RedCap). Essentially a stripped-down version of eMBB, it has at most two receive antennas and no carrier aggregation, supports fewer MIMO layers, and provides an option for half-duplex FDD. All these performance reductions bring its pricing closer to the range of today’s LTE Cat 1 and LTE Cat 4 solutions.
With 5G covering the full spectrum of use cases, should we expect 4G LTE network sunsets anytime soon? According to Ericsson’s latest Mobility Report, 5G will make up less than 50% of global connections in 2027.
There’s a lot of inertia in the system, and transitioning billions of subscribers takes time. It is anticipated that for at least the next five, if not ten years, there will likely be no place on earth with 5G coverage that does not also have 4G coverage. In other words, 4G LTE is, at least for the foreseeable future, here to stay.
With the choice between 4G LTE and 5G out of the way, we can direct our attention to the actual decision factors that should guide the selection of the most appropriate cellular technology. The decision should be based on the specific use case at hand, guided by the following key questions:
1. Does the device need global connectivity, or will it only be deployed in one technological market?
2. How price sensitive is the application?
3. How much power does the application consume, and what are expectations in terms of power autonomy?
4. Is the application deployed in hard-to-reach locations with typically poor cellular reception?
5. How much data does the application transmit?
6. Does the application require positioning capabilities, and to what accuracy?
Therefore, to summarise briefly, if you are bringing an IoT device to market in the next two years, your most common options for IoT deployments are LPWA technologies (NB-IoT, LTE-M) and LTE Cat 1. If, instead, you are looking three or more years out in a region where mobile network operators tend to be early movers, you might also consider 5G RedCap as a more capable alternative for LTE Cat 1, particularly for consumer wearables and stationary, long-lifecycle IoT applications.
Table 1 highlights the principal technological benefits of the cellular IoT technologies and information about their availability.
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