2025 outlook for DRAM is poor

31 October 2024 News

The fourth quarter is a critical period for setting DRAM contract prices, and TrendForce’s latest research reveals that prices for mature DRAM processes such as DDR4 and LPDDR4X are already trending downward because of ample supply and declining demand. The demand outlook for advanced products like DDR5 and LPDDR5X remains uncertain, and with high inventory levels among certain buyers and sellers, a further drop in prices by the end of Q4 cannot be ruled out.

Avril Wu, TrendForce senior vice president of research, explained that the company initially had a more optimistic outlook on DRAM prices in 2025, driven by aggressive HBM capacity expansion by the top three suppliers, with new facilities expected to begin full production by 2026. However, rapid changes in market dynamics have led TrendForce to revise its forecast, shifting from an anticipated price increase to a projected decline, with the first half of 2025 expected to see a particularly pronounced drop. In this trend, DDR4 and LPDDR4X are likely to face more significant downward pressure than DDR5 and LPDDR5X.

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